正常高值血压人群颈动脉斑块的相关因素

The contributing factors of carotid plaque in people with high-normal blood pressure

  • 摘要: 目的 分析正常高值血压人群中颈动脉斑块的相关危险因素。方法 回顾性选取2017年1月-2019年12月在郑州大学第一附属医院健康管理中心进行健康体检的正常高值血压者10 455人,根据颈动脉超声检查分为颈动脉斑块组4 584例和颈动脉正常组5 871人,对两组间性别、年龄、体质量指数(BMI)、腰围及血生化指标进行比较;采用logistic回归分析颈动脉斑块的相关危险因素;应用列线图进行影响因素的可视化分析;绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评价列线图模型预测颈动脉斑块风险的效能。结果 与颈动脉正常组相比,颈动脉斑块组的男性比例偏高,年龄偏大,BMI稍大,空腹血糖、血压、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDL-C)、肌酐、尿素氮等指标升高,肾小球滤过率下降(P<0.05)。单因素logistic回归分析结果显示,男性,年龄、空腹血糖、总胆固醇及LDL-C增加为颈动脉斑块的危险因素(均P<0.05);多因素logistic回归分析(向前逐步)显示,男性(OR=1.81,95%CI 1.63~2.02)、年龄(与18~<40岁比较,40~<50岁,OR=3.77,95%CI 3.01~4.74;50~<60岁,OR=8.82,95%CI 7.06~11.02;60~<70岁,OR=17.96,95%CI 14.13~22.84;≥70岁,OR=27.84,95%CI 20.30~38.18)、空腹血糖≥7.0 mmol/L(与<6.1 mmol/L比较,OR=1.56,95%CI 1.34~1.82)及LDL-C增加(OR=1.26,95%CI 1.15~1.38)是正常高值血压人群颈动脉斑块的独立危险因素(均P<0.05)。基于此建立的风险预测模型验证具有一定的精确度及区分度(C指数为0.707,95%CI 0.699~0.717)。ROC曲线分析显示模型预测效能曲线下面积(AUC)为0.707(95%CI 0.697~0.717),灵敏度为71.1%,特异度为59.6%。结论 正常高值血压人群中男性、年龄、空腹血糖及LDL-C升高与颈动脉斑块相关,基于这些指标建立的颈动脉斑块风险预测模型对于识别高危人群具有一定的价值。

     

    Abstract: Objective To analyze the contributing risk factors of carotid plaque in people with high-normal blood pressure. Methods A total of 10 455 subjects with high-normal blood pressure were retrospectively selected in people who underwent a physical examination at the health management center of The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2017 to December 2019. The subjects were subsequently divided into carotid plaque group(n=4 584) and normal carotid artery group(n=5 871) according to the results of carotid arteries ultrasound. Gender, age, body mass index(BMI), waist circumference, and blood biochemical indicators were compared between the two groups. Logistic regression was used to analyze the contributing risk factors of carotid plaque. Nomogram was applied to visualize the contributing factors. Receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve was used to evaluate the efficiency of the nomogram model to predict carotid plaque. Results Compared with the normal carotid artery group, subjects in the carotid plaque group were more likely to be males, older, with higher BMI, fasting blood glucose, blood pressure, low density lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL-C), creatinine and urea nitrogen, and lower glomerular filtration rate(all P<0.05). Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that male, increased age, fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol and LDL-C were risk factors for carotid plaque(all P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis(forward stepwise) showed that male(OR=1.81, 95%CI 1.63-2.02), age(compared with age 18-<40 years, 40-<50 years, OR=3.77, 95%CI 3.01-4.74; 50-<60, OR=8.82, 95%CI 7.06-11.02; 60-<70, OR=17.96, 95%CI 14.13-22.84; ≥70, OR=27.84, 95%CI 20.30-38.18), fasting plasma glucose≥7.0 mmol/L(compared with <6.1 mmol/L, OR=1.56, 95%CI 1.34-1.82) and increased LDL-C(OR=1.26, 95%CI 1.15-1.38) were independent risk factors for carotid plaque in people with high-normal blood pressure(all P<0.05). The risk prediction model was established based on the four independent risk factors, with good accuracy and discrimination(C-index=0.707, 95%CI 0.699-0.717). ROC curve analysis for prediction model showed that the area under the curve(AUC) was 0.707(95%CI 0.697-0.717), sensitivity was 71.1% and specificity was 59.6%. Conclusions Male, age, increased fasting plasma glucose and LDL-C level are significantly associated with carotid plaque in people with high-normal blood pressure, and the carotid plaque risk prediction model based on these risk factors can help to identify the high-risk populations.

     

/

返回文章
返回