Abstract:
Objective To investigate the association between central systolic blood pressure(cSBP) and the 10-year cardiovascular risk estimated by the model of prediction for arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in China(China-PAR). Methods The data from the follow-up survey of the cohort of atherosclerotic people in Shijingshan District of Beijing from September to December 2018 were used. After excluding those with history of coronary heart disease and stroke, 2 051 participants with effective data of cSBP and other information required for China-PAR risk prediction model were selected in the analysis. cSBP was measured using Omron HEM-9000AI. The 10-year cardiovascular risk was estimated by China-PAR risk prediction model, and low, moderate and high risks were defined as the estimated risk <5.0%, 5.0%-<10.0% and ≥10.0%, respectively. Univariate and multivariate linear regression analysis were used to analyze the correlation between cSBP level and China-PAR 10-year risk, and univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to analyze the correlation between cSBP level and high 10-year cardiovascular risk. Results The 10-year risk of the first, second and third tertile of cSBP was 5.05%(2.93%-8.77%), 8.23%(5.05%-12.55%) and 11.67%(7.41%-17.27%), respectively. As cSBP elevated, the estimated 10-year cardiovascular risk significantly increased(χ~2=368.85, P<0.01). Multivariate linear and logistic regression analysis showed that after adjusting for covariates, compared with participants in the first tertile of cSBP, the estimated 10-year risk increased by 1.06%(B=1.06, 95%CI 0.48-1.64) among participants in the second tertile and 3.20%(B=3.20, 95%CI 2.56-3.84) in the third tertile, and the rate of a high risk increased by 1.82 times(OR=1.82, 95%CI 1.34-2.47) among participants in the second tertile and 3.22 times(OR=3.22, 95%CI 2.35-4.42) in the third tertile. For every 10 mm Hg elevation in cSBP, the estimated 10-year risk increased by 0.95%(B=0.95, 95%CI 0.80-1.10), and the rate of a high risk increased by 1.36 times(OR=1.36, 95%CI 1.26-1.46). After excluding those who were taking antihypertensive drugs, the association still existed. Conclusions Noninvasive cSBP is significantly associated with 10-year cardiovascular risk estimated by China-PAR in a Beijing community-based population, indicating the importance of cSBP in the prediction of the 10-year cardiovascular risk.