Abstract:
Objective To investigate the association between metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) and the risk of diabetes.
Methods This study was a prospective cohort study. A total of 101 510 participants from the Kailuan Study who underwent health examinations in 2006–2007 were selected, and baseline data were collected, using the time point of the completion of the health examination as the baseline time for follow-up. Metabolic health was defined as systolic blood pressure <130 mmHg in the absence of antihypertensive medications, waist-to-hip ratio <0.95 for women and <1.03 for men, and no prior history of diabetes. Body mass index (BMI) categories were defined as follows: normal weight (BMI<24 kg/m²), overweight (24–<28 kg/m²), and obesity (BMI≥28 kg/m²). Participants were classified into six groups based on metabolic health and BMI: metabolically healthy normal weight (MHNW), metabolically healthy overweight (MHOW), MHO, metabolically unhealthy normal weight (MUHNW), metabolically unhealthy overweight (MUHOW), and metabolically unhealthy obesity (MUO). Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between these groups and the risk of diabetes.
Results A total of 80 404 participants met the inclusion criteria, with 18 312 in the MHNW group, 14 662 in the MHOW group, 4 536 in the MHO group, 13 541 in the MUHNW group, 19 390 in the MUHOW group, and 9 963 in the MUO group. During a median follow-up of 11.24 (8.03, 12.71) years, 11 215 cases of diabetes were identified. Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that, compared with the MHNW group, the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for diabetes risk were as follows: MHOW (HR: 1.91, 95%CI: 1.77–2.06), MHO (HR: 3.16, 95%CI: 2.89–3.46), MUHNW (HR: 1.37, 95%CI: 1.25–1.50), MUHOW (HR: 2.14, 95%CI: 1.98–2.33), and MUO (HR: 3.29, 95%CI: 3.03–3.58). After redefining metabolic health based on different criteria, the results remained unchanged. Moreover, the association between different metabolic status-BMI groups and diabetes risk was more pronounced among women and individuals with fasting blood glucose <6.1 mmol/L compared with men and individuals with fasting blood glucose ≥6.1 mmol/L, respectively.
Conclusion Despite normal metabolic indicators, MHO is still associated with an increased risk of diabetes.