西藏地区医务人员高血压患病风险列线图模型的构建

Development of a nomogram for screening hypertension risk among healthcare workers in Xizang Region

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析西藏地区医务人员高血压患病的影响因素,构建列线图模型,为制定针对性的高血压防控干预措施提供参考依据。
    方法 纳入第七次西藏自治区卫生服务调查中从事医务工作的共2 262人。采用LASSO回归法筛选最佳预测变量,使用logistic回归模型分析医务人员高血压患病的影响因素,并构建列线图。使用受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线、Hosmer-Lemeshow检验、校准曲线和决策曲线评估列线图的性能,采用Bootstrap法对模型进行内部验证。
    结果 纳入2 262名医务人员,其中352例(15.6%)患有高血压。吸烟、饮酒、亚健康状态、基线自报高血脂、糖尿病和抑郁症为高血压患病的危险因素(P<0.05),OR(95%CI)分别为1.563(1.058~2.311)、1.441(1.035~2.006)、2.465(1.435~4.235)、6.786(4.840~9.515)、22.319(13.099~38.027)、2.036(1.339~3.097),将上述6个变量纳入预测模型。Bootstrap内部验证ROC曲线下面积为0.838;Hosmer-Lemeshow检验P = 0.565;校准曲线显示预测值和实际高血压患病情况之间存在一致性。决策曲线分析显示该模型在不同阈值范围内均具有良好的净效益和预测准确性。
    结论 吸烟、饮酒、亚健康状态、高血脂、糖尿病、抑郁症是西藏地区医务人员高血压患病的危险因素。基于LASSO回归构建的列线图模型具有良好的性能,可作为西藏地区医疗机构及相关部门评估医务人员高血压患病风险的便捷有效工具。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the influencing factors of hypertension among healthcare workers in the Xizang region, and to construct a nomogram, providing a reference for formulating targeted hypertension prevention and control interventions.
    Methods A total of 2 262 healthcare workers from the medical personnel component of the Seventh Xizang Autonomous Region Health Service Survey were included. LASSO regression was used to select the best predictive variables, and a logistic regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of hypertension among healthcare workers and to construct a nomogram. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis, and internal validation of the model was performed using the Bootstrap method.
    Results A total of 2 262 healthcare workers were included, among whom 352 (15.6%) had hypertension. Six variables, smoking status, drinking status, subhealth status, baseline self-reported hyperlipidemia, baseline self-reported diabetes, and baseline self-reported depression, were included in the model. The area under the ROC curve of the prediction model in the validation set was 0.838; the Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded a P value of 0.565; the calibration curve showed a good consistency between the predicted values and the actual hypertension prevalence. Decision curve analysis showed that the model had good net benefit and accuracy across different threshold ranges.
    Conclusion The nomogram prediction model constructed based on LASSO regression has good predictive performance and can serve as a convenient and effective tool for medical institutions and relevant departments in Xizang to assess the risk of hypertension among healthcare workers.

     

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