急性主动脉夹层院内死亡的危险因素
Risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with acute aortic dissection
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摘要: 目的研究急性主动脉夹层(AAD)患者临床特点及院内死亡危险因素,建立风险预测模型。方法回顾分析2004年1月至2016年5月武警总医院住院治疗的AAD患者病史资料,应用单因素及多因素Logistic回归分析确定患者院内死亡的独立危险因素,建立风险预测模型,并通过Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验和受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积判断该模型对AAD患者院内死亡的预测能力。结果所有196例AAD患者中36例患者住院期间死亡,院内死亡率为18.4%。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,AAD院内死亡的独立危险因素包括:年龄≥65岁(OR=4.57,P=0.010),低血压(OR=9.58,P=0.001),急性肾损伤(OR=11.42,P=0.001),缺血性并发症(OR=6.35,P=0.001),神经系统症状(OR=7.60,P=0.020),A型夹层(OR=7.59,P=0.001),Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验P=0.18,ROC曲线下面积为0.92。结论年龄≥65岁、低血压、急性肾损伤、缺血性并发症、神经系统症状及A型夹层为AAD患者院内死亡的独立危险因素。Abstract: Objective To determine risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with acute aortic dissection(AAD)and set up a risk prediction model. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on the clinical data from 196 patients with AAD who were hospitalized in General Hospital of Chinese People’s Armed Police Force between January 2004 and May 2016. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality. Risk prediction model was set up.Hosmer-Lemeshow goodnessof-fit test and the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve were used to determine the model’s predictive ability for in-hospital mortality in patients with AAD. Results In 196 patients with ADD,36 patients died during their hospitalization,and the in-hospital mortality rate was 18.4%.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with AAD included age≥65years(OR=4.57,P=0.010),hypotension(OR=9.58,P=0.001),acute kidney injury(OR=11.42,P=0.001),ischemic complications(OR=6.35,P=0.001),neurological symptoms(OR=7.60,P=0.020)and type A dissection(OR=7.59,P=0.001). The Pvalue for Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was 0.18 and the area under the ROC curve was 0.92. Conclusion Independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with AAD were age≥65years,hypotension,acute kidney failure,ischemic complications,neurological symptoms and type A dissection.